14% Truck Rejection Surge: The Hidden Crisis Choking US Freight Lanes
US truckload rejection rates hit 14.17% in mid-October, defying seasonal norms.
The U.S. freight market has experienced an unexpected surge in truckload tender rejections, reaching 14.17% in October—a level far above typical seasonal trends. Unlike past spikes, this increase is not driven by a sudden rise in demand. Instead, analysts point to a persistent shortage of available trucks across the country, creating a supply imbalance that is tightening capacity in key regions.
Zach Strickland, a market analyst at SONAR, described the development as both “significant and unexpected.” Data from the SONAR Tender Volume Index confirms that demand has not surged, meaning the current strain stems entirely from insufficient supply. “The only explanation is that we still have continued market imbalance,” Strickland said. “Supply is still not sufficient to cover demand in terms of truckload capacity.”
Why the Timing Is Unusual: Freight
Mid-October typically marks a lull in freight activity, offering a brief pause before the holiday shipping rush. This year, however, the disruption is widespread, with the SONAR Weighted Rejection Index showing elevated levels across multiple markets simultaneously. Among the hardest-hit areas are Los Angeles, Harrisburg, Atlanta, Knoxville, Memphis, Green Bay, Des Moines, Ontario (California), and El Paso—all experiencing higher-than-normal rejection rates.
Strickland noted that the breadth of the issue is particularly striking. “To see this as broad and stretched across the country is something that is worth noting,” he said. Many of these markets, such as Columbus, Harrisburg, and Atlanta, serve as major distribution hubs that usually absorb inbound freight rather than push it away. The current shift suggests deeper structural challenges in the supply chain.
The situation in Los Angeles and Ontario is especially critical. Record import volumes at the Port of Los Angeles in September have contributed to what Strickland called a “prolonged plateau” in maritime activity, rather than a traditional peak. Retailers, operating with lean inventories due to just-in-time ordering strategies, are now rushing to restock, further straining truckload capacity as goods move eastward from the West Coast.
Spot Rates Expected to Follow
Despite the sharp rise in tender rejections, spot rates have not yet fully adjusted. Strickland anticipates that the National Truckload Index, Regional Truckload Index, and possibly the Flatbed Truckload Index will climb in the coming week as the market catches up to the tightening conditions. Currently, tender lead times average 3.5 to 4 days, while spot freight is being booked with less than a day’s notice—a lag that explains the delay in rate increases.
While some markets, like Houston, show signs of softening in the van segment, the refrigerated freight market presents a mixed picture. Milwaukee is experiencing the tightest conditions among major reefer markets, whereas Stockton, California, remains the softest, complicating efforts to reallocate capacity efficiently.
The current rejection rate of 14.17% signals more than a temporary fluctuation. With peak shipping season approaching, the freight market may face further pressure as supply struggles to meet even steady demand.
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