4% of global oil at risk: Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb choke points tighten
Saudi Arabia’s 4m-barrel-per-day East-West pipeline shut after drone strike, while Houthis seize key Red Sea islands
Middle Eastern shipping routes are facing renewed disruptions as attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz coincide with escalating tensions in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Two commercial ships were targeted on Sunday, deepening concerns over maritime security in the region.
The El Gaia, a Panama-flagged product tanker with a capacity of 47,999 deadweight tons, was struck off Oman’s coast. The vessel, managed by UAE-based Elsey Ship Management, had recently departed from the port of Sohar. The attack left one Indian crew member missing, while 13 others were rescued. Meanwhile, an Iranian containership sustained damage near Qeshm and Hengam islands, resulting in one fatality and multiple injuries. Iranian authorities attributed the incident to a “terrorist enemy,” though no immediate confirmation of responsibility came from the United States.
Saudi oil pipeline shutdown strains Red Sea exports: strait of hormuz
Saudi Arabia’s critical East-West pipeline, a key alternative route for oil exports during the Hormuz crisis, was forced offline on Friday after a drone attack damaged a pumping station. The 1,200-kilometer pipeline typically transports around 4 million barrels per day—approximately 4% of global oil supply—to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
Industry estimates suggest Yanbu’s crude stockpiles can sustain exports for only five to seven more days. Repair timelines vary widely, with some projections indicating a return to full operation within days, while others warn of delays lasting up to six weeks. Satellite imagery from TankerTrackers.com revealed Saudi crews assembling a bypass pipeline near the damaged station, signaling urgent efforts to restore flow.
Houthi advances heighten Red Sea risks
At the southern end of the Red Sea, Houthi forces have expanded their control, seizing Perim Island (Mayun) and the mainland town of Dhubab after capturing Mokha last week. The advances place the Iran-aligned group in a stronger position to influence shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a chokepoint for global trade.
While the Houthis claim international vessels can transit safely—excluding Saudi ships—analysts caution that conditions remain unpredictable. Sea-Intelligence described the situation as a “Sword of Damocles,” warning that security could deteriorate rapidly for carriers considering a return to the Red Sea.
The instability has already delayed diplomatic efforts. A planned meeting in Oman between Gulf states and Iran to discuss Hormuz security was postponed at Saudi Arabia’s request. Oman’s foreign minister, Sayyid Badr Albusaidi, cited the need for “consensus” as the reason for the delay. The postponement underscores the broader uncertainty gripping the region as risks converge at both ends of the Red Sea.
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