Shipping’s 2030 Green Targets Sink as Regulatory Storm Brews
Industry falls short of 5-10% zero-emission fuel goal as IMO framework stalls and methanol tonnage triples in vain.
The shipping industry is on track to fall short of its 2030 targets for adopting alternative fuels, according to a recent study by the UCL Energy Institute. The report, produced in collaboration with the Getting to Zero Coalition, warns that regulatory uncertainty—particularly around the stalled IMO Net-Zero Framework (NZF)—is the primary obstacle to progress.
The 2023 IMO Greenhouse Gas Strategy set an ambitious goal: by 2030, zero-emission fuels should account for 5-10% of the industry’s total fuel consumption. This would require 600-1,200 large vessels (15,000 TEU or equivalent) to operate on scalable zero-emission fuels (SZEF). However, the report reveals that the industry failed to meet even the 2025 milestone of 100 such ships, citing economic instability, geopolitical tensions, and the lack of a clear regulatory framework.
Progress Stalls Amid Policy Gridlock: Regulatory
Pinar Langer, a research fellow at the UCL Energy Institute, described the failure to adopt the NZF as “the single most transition-regressive event” in the five years since the report’s inception. Without policy certainty, shipowners hesitate to invest in zero-emission vessels, lenders lack incentives to finance them, and charterers remain reluctant to pay premiums for low-carbon shipping.
Despite the setbacks, some progress has been made. The number of ports offering methanol bunkering rose from 19 to 29 over the past year, while the first large ammonia-fueled vessels completed successful sea trials. Smaller ammonia-powered ships, including tugboats and supply vessels, have also entered service, alongside the first ship-to-ship ammonia bunkering operation.
Methanol-capable container ships saw a significant increase in 2025, with 56 newbuilds adding 5.4 million gross tonnage (GT) to the fleet. This tripled the in-service methanol-capable tonnage from 2.3 million to 7.7 million GT, raising the SZEF-capable share of the active fleet from 0.41% to 0.77%. However, the order book for such vessels shrank, with SZEF-capable orders dropping from 9.5% to 5.7% of total GT orders.
Mixed Signals in Alternative Fuel Adoption
Financial support for sustainable shipping has also plateaued. In 2025, green loans, bonds, and sustainability-linked instruments totaled $3 billion—down from $3.4 billion the previous year. The report identifies policy as the weakest of the five key levers for progress, alongside technology, demand, finance, and civil society.
The industry’s long-term goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 now appears increasingly uncertain. Without urgent regulatory action, the 2030 targets may remain out of reach, delaying the broader transition to sustainable shipping.
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