LNG trade chaos as Hormuz blockade chokes Qatar’s 12.8m-tonne output
Qatar’s LNG exports via the Strait of Hormuz have collapsed to just five transits last week.
The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipping sector is experiencing its most significant transformation in years as disruptions in the Gulf reshape trade flows, redirect cargoes, and drive European gas prices to levels not seen since 2022. With spot prices nearing $30 per million British thermal units, the crisis has exposed vulnerabilities in supply chains while creating unexpected opportunities for alternative suppliers.
Transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy shipments, has plummeted in recent weeks. Last week, only five LNG carriers successfully navigated the passage, less than half the four-week average, with just two vessels carrying cargo outbound. The decline reflects broader challenges in Qatari exports, which have struggled to maintain pre-crisis volumes.
Between October 1 and 13, Qatar loaded 13 LNG cargoes, yet only four ships broadcast active AIS signals. The remaining nine were tracked through satellite imagery and other intelligence sources. The disruption has forced buyers to seek alternatives, with Italy’s Edison receiving force majeure notices for 35 Qatari cargoes, equivalent to 4.6 billion cubic metres of gas, suspended until early December. Compounding the issue, damage to two liquefaction trains at Ras Laffan in March has removed 12.8 million tonnes of annual production capacity, with repairs expected to take years.
Natural Gas
Gulf disruptions reshape LNG trade routes: Qatar
Security risks have further complicated deliveries. On October 17, the Qatari LNG carrier Al Kharsaah, en route to Poland via the Red Sea, came under attack in the Gulf of Aden. Armed security personnel aboard the vessel returned warning shots, deterring the assailants. If completed, the voyage would mark Europe’s first Qatari LNG delivery since April.
As Gulf exports falter, the United States has solidified its role as the world’s swing supplier. Last week, American terminals dispatched 2.5 million tonnes across 36 cargoes, according to Vortexa. Official figures show US LNG exports surged 23% in the first half of 2026, with Europe and Turkey absorbing more than half of September’s US shipments, 76 out of 143 cargoes. Egypt, facing declining domestic production, also received 14 American cargoes that month.
US emerges as key supplier amid shifting demand
The shift is particularly evident in India, where Oman has overtaken the US as the largest LNG supplier. In September, India imported 590,000 tonnes from Oman, compared to 350,000 tonnes from Nigeria and 340,000 tonnes from the US. Qatar, once India’s dominant supplier, delivered just 100,000 tonnes. Despite elevated prices, Indian LNG imports rose 7% year-on-year in September, though other Asian buyers have been more cautious.
Japan’s major utilities held 2.64 million tonnes of LNG in inventory earlier this month, their highest stockpile since December 2023, while South Korea has increasingly turned to coal. Kpler projects coal plant utilisation in South Korea will reach 63.5% in November and December. Meanwhile, China reduced its September LNG imports to 5.2 million tonnes as weaker industrial demand and growing pipeline supplies diminished its reliance on seaborne gas.
The crisis underscores the fragility of global LNG markets, even as the carrier fleet expands. With approximately 285 vessels on order, equivalent to 37% of the existing fleet, new capacity may struggle to offset the loss of Qatar’s 12.8 million tonnes of annual output. For now, the US remains the linchpin of a rapidly evolving trade landscape.
Sign up free to ask CAMAL AI for a summary, the key points or anything else about this story.
Related stories
CAMAL AI
Financial Ports Newsletter
The maritime economy, every morning
Ports, shipping and freight markets in one short email. Free.
