Freight Rejection Rates Stall at 13.5%—Why Peak Season Isn’t Peaking
Truckload tender rejection rates remain flat ahead of Labor Day, defying historical surges.
The freight market is breaking from tradition this peak season, with truckload tender rejection rates stubbornly stuck at 13.5% heading into Labor Day weekend, far below the historical surge that typically tightens capacity and drives up spot rates.
FreightWaves’ SONAR data reveals a stark departure from prior years, where rejection rates climbed steadily through August, peaking ahead of the holiday. In 2025, the cycle hit a high above 17.5% earlier in the year but has since flatlined, leaving analysts questioning whether this is the new normal for a supply-driven market, or a sign of deeper structural shifts.
Why the Usual Peak Season Surge Isn’t Materialising
Historically, August has been a bellwether for peak season demand, with tender rejections rising as shippers scramble to secure capacity for holiday inventory. This year, however, the pattern has collapsed. Julie Van de Kamp, a FreightWaves contributor, initially expected rejection rates to reach 18% ahead of Labor Day but has since walked back those projections. Craig Fuller, another FreightWaves expert, was even more cautious, offering an informal forecast of “in the 15ss”, still below the peaks of previous cycles.
“I’m not a forecaster, but if I had to bet, I would think we’re in the 15ss.”
Craig Fuller·FreightWaves Contributor
The discrepancy is even more pronounced when comparing 2025 to prior years. SONAR’s historical overlays, magenta for 2023, green for 2024, and yellow for 2025, show a consistent August uptick culminating in a Labor Day peak. The 2025 line, however, remains flat, defying expectations. Van de Kamp still anticipates some firming through the holiday weekend and the following week, but the absence of a pre-Labor Day surge has left the industry on edge.
A key factor suppressing the usual seasonal tightening is the role of rail. Both Van de Kamp and Fuller pointed to railroads absorbing a significant share of long-haul freight that would otherwise move by truckload. Fuller noted, “We haven’t seen demand pick up. It’s been pretty steady. And as we’ve talked about over and over again, this cycle is supply-driven.” The result? Trucking volumes are steady but not tight, and the market remains orderly rather than constrained.
Spot Rates Tell a Mixed Story, But the Trend Is Clear
While spot rates remain elevated, up 44% year-over-year at $3.29 per mile, they have fallen roughly 2.5% month-over-month from a cycle peak above $3.80. Contract rates, meanwhile, are up 17% year-over-year, narrowing the gap between spot and contract as shippers adjust routing guides to keep them intact. The dynamic suggests a market in transition, where carriers are still commanding premium rates but without the usual pre-holiday frenzy. The broader context adds another layer of complexity.
The shift in peak season timing is not entirely new. The Global Port Tracker report highlights May 2025 as the busiest month for container imports, a departure from the traditional late-summer rush.
For carriers, the implications are significant. While spot rates remain robust, the lack of a pre-Labor Day surge suggests that capacity is not as constrained as in previous years. The railroads’ growing share of long-haul freight is a structural change that could keep trucking volumes in check, even as demand fluctuates. Fuller emphasised the cost floor isn’t budging, noting, “The cost floor isn’t moving: fuel and canal surcharges won’t fall with demand.” This means carriers may struggle to push rates higher, even if volumes pick up modestly in the coming weeks.
The question now is whether this orderly market behaviour is a temporary blip or the new normal. Van de Kamp’s expectation of a modest firming in rejection rates through Labor Day offers a glimmer of hope for carriers, but the broader trend suggests a market that is recalibrating. For shippers, the narrowing gap between spot and contract rates is a welcome development, offering more stability in routing guides. For the industry as a whole, the shift underscores the growing influence of rail and the evolving dynamics of peak season demand.
As the freight calendar moves closer to the traditional peak season, all eyes will be on volume data, particularly in coastal markets like Los Angeles/Long Beach, New York/New Jersey, and Houston. Weekly AAR rail freight data, published every Wednesday, will also be closely watched, as it has remained robust and could continue to suppress trucking demand. For now, the market remains in a holding pattern, steady, but not tight, and far from the frenetic peaks of years past.
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