By 2030, 60% of urban deliveries could be driverless—here’s how
By 2030, the majority of deliveries done in downtown or dense areas could be handled by autonomous vehicles, according to Sergei Kirillov, Chief Commercial Officer at Avride. The company, which already operates over 1,000 autonomous vehicles, including both delivery robots and passenger cars, is positioning itself as a leader in the race to automate last-mile logistics.
Avride’s fleet includes more than 60 autonomous passenger cars on Uber’s platform in Dallas and several hundred suitcase-sized delivery robots operating across Jersey City, Philadelphia, Austin, Dallas, and Miami. The robots, which can carry a standard 16-inch pizza box, are also deployed on over 25 college campuses, where they navigate sidewalks and deliver food via Uber Eats and Grubhub.
The company’s strategy hinges on a single autonomous driving system adaptable to different vehicle types, from small delivery bots to passenger cars. Kirillov highlighted the efficiency of this approach, noting that Avride’s combined operational data from both robots and cars gives it a competitive edge. “Together, robots and cars, we’re way over 1,000 already,” he said. “So that actually sets us to the top of the range in these AV company ratings.”
One unexpected benefit of Avride’s design choices has been a “dramatic decrease of vandalism". The robots feature an animated face, which Kirillov said encourages users to treat them as living creatures rather than machines.
However, challenges remain. While the delivery robots operate independently, all autonomous passenger cars still require supervision, either by a human operator in the vehicle or via remote monitoring. Transitioning to fully unsupervised operations will depend on further technological advancements and infrastructure upgrades, including autonomous-capable car platforms from manufacturers and expanded charging networks.
What’s next for autonomous deliveries?: autonomous delivery
Kirillov is optimistic about the timeline for mainstream adoption. “I actually think that in the larger cities by 2030, the majority of deliveries done in downtown or dense areas will be already done by different types of automated delivery devices or cars,” he said. “I think 2028, 2029 will be the years of the massive scaling of this technology to every sphere of our life.”
The company is also addressing logistical hurdles, such as underdeveloped merchant-side infrastructure for loading and unloading autonomous vehicles. Without standardized protocols, the addressable market for autonomous deliveries remains limited, but Kirillov expects rapid progress as adoption grows.
“Together, robots and cars, we’re way over 1,000 already. So that actually sets us to the top of the range in these AV company ratings. And this is a very important experience that we’re getting. Very few other companies have actually reached that level of intelligence and knowledge about the space.”
Sergei Kirillov·Chief Commercial Officer at Avride
“I actually think that in the larger cities by 2030, the majority of deliveries done in downtown or dense areas will be already done by different types of automated delivery devices or cars. I think it’s totally possible. I think 2028, 2029 will be the years of the massive scaling of this technology to every sphere of our life.”
Sergei Kirillov·Chief Commercial Officer at Avride
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