25,000 Visa Revocations Spark US-Mexico Border Freight Crisis
US authorities revoke visas for 25,000 Mexican truck drivers.
The US-Mexico border is facing a freight crisis after US authorities revoked visas for 25,000 Mexican truck drivers, slashing the pool of qualified operators and sending rejection rates and spot freight rates soaring. The squeeze, most acute in El Paso, is expected to last well into 2027, with no immediate relief in sight.
The visa revocations have left cross-border carriers scrambling for drivers, pushing tender rejection rates in El Paso to 24-25% in early July. San Diego/Otay Mesa and Laredo are also feeling the strain, with rejection rates at 10% and 7%, respectively, both up sharply from 2023 levels.
The Mexico Contract Volume Index shows freight volumes have remained relatively stable since recovering from a January dip. Instead, the problem is a severe shortage of available drivers, according to Julie Van de Kamp, who presented the data on a FreightWaves SONAR broadcast on October 13.8%.
“What is driving this is Mexico, there is not so much increased demand, but there’s certainly, whether short-term or whether it will be longer-term, we’re seeing a lot of reports of driver shortages. For that Mexican border, a lot of this revolves around lack of driver availability and visa revocations.”
Julie Van de Kamp·FreightWaves SONAR Julie Van de Kamp
The impact on freight rates has been dramatic. Spot rates on high-volume corridors have skyrocketed: San Diego-to-Phoenix is up 57% year over year, Laredo-to-Dallas has climbed 43%, and El Paso-to-Dallas has risen 28%.
Canada’s Border Woes: A Different but Equally Damaging Problem: US-Mexico Border
While the US-Mexico border grapples with a driver shortage, the US-Canada border faces a different challenge: a freight imbalance. Canadian exports remain strong, but weak northbound return freight makes it difficult for carriers to secure backhauls. The result? Some operators are avoiding certain US markets altogether or demanding premium pay to take on loads.
FreightWaves data shows that rates on select Canada corridors have surged 20% to 35% over the past six weeks. The Canadian rejection rate has also climbed, from roughly 4% to about 5.5% year over year, and is expected to rise further through year-end. Van de Kamp noted that the imbalance is pushing some contract freight onto the spot market, adding to the volatility.
The US-Mexico border is a critical artery for trade, with nearly $2 billion worth of goods crossing daily. The crisis could also exacerbate inflationary pressures, which have only recently begun to ease.
FreightWaves expects the tightness to persist well into 2027, with no signs of a quick fix. Carriers are urging US authorities to address the driver shortage, whether through visa policy adjustments, streamlined compliance processes, or other measures. However, with geopolitical tensions and security concerns at the forefront, a resolution may not come swiftly. In the meantime, businesses and consumers alike will feel the pinch, both in their wallets and in their supply chains.
For those monitoring the situation, the next key milestone will be the end of the year, when Canadian rejection rates are expected to peak. On the US-Mexico border, all eyes will be on whether tender rejection rates stabilize or continue their upward trajectory. Until then, the crisis remains one of the most pressing challenges facing North America’s freight networks.
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