Shadow fleet nears 20% of global tankers as maritime rules fracture
Eighteen maritime nations warn of a two-tier system as 1,500 unregulated vessels bypass IMO standards
Eighteen of the world’s leading maritime nations have issued an unprecedented warning that the international rules governing global shipping are fracturing, as a shadow fleet of over 1,500 unregulated vessels nears 20% of the world’s tanker capacity.
The Consultative Shipping Group (CSG), whose members include Greece, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Norway, Denmark, Germany, and the UK, released a joint statement titled In defence of free shipping, arguing that wars, chokepoint disruptions, and discriminatory trade measures are fundamentally altering the operating environment for commercial vessels. The group, which represents more than a fifth of global trade by tonnage, warned that the result is a two-tier system: one governed by established rules, the other by opacity.
Shadow fleet growth undermines global maritime standards
The CSG highlighted the explosive growth of the shadow fleet, a parallel maritime system created by sanctions on Russia and Iran. Industry estimates put the number of vessels operating outside conventional insurance, safety, and transparency frameworks at more than 1,500, approaching a fifth of global tanker capacity. The shadow fleet’s rise reflects broader geopolitical fractures.
The group’s warning comes as geopolitical tensions in key maritime chokepoints, such as the Strait of Hormuz, escalate. Iran’s attempts to control merchant traffic through the strait, coupled with attacks on commercial shipping, challenge the long-standing assumption that international waterways remain open to neutral trade. These disruptions, the group argued, are not isolated incidents but signs of a structural shift in how global trade operates.
For the shipping industry, the implications are stark. Uncertainty over access to ports or routes forces companies to reroute vessels, increasing costs and delivery times. The CSG’s statement noted that such fragmentation could lead to higher consumer prices and supply shortages, particularly for energy and food commodities.
The role of the IMO and UNCLOS in preserving maritime order
The CSG singled out the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) as cornerstones of the rules-based maritime system.
UNCLOS, meanwhile, provides the legal framework for maritime boundaries, navigation rights, and the peaceful use of the oceans. It guarantees rights of innocent and transit passage through key straits, including the Strait of Hormuz and the Panama Canal, which the CSG described as critical to global trade. However, the CSG warned that these decades-old laws are increasingly being tested by state actors seeking to weaponise shipping routes for geopolitical leverage.
The CSG’s call for renewed political backing of these institutions comes at a critical juncture. The group’s intervention underscores the urgency of modernising these frameworks to reflect the realities of 21st-century trade.
The CSG, which was established over 60 years ago, made its first public intervention in response to what it described as a structural shift in global trade. The group argued that maritime transport should be treated as critical infrastructure, underpinning not only trade but also global food and energy security. It singled out the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and the International Maritime Organization as essential frameworks for maintaining navigation rights, safety, and fair competition.
However, the CSG stressed that the solution is not to create more regulations but to enforce existing ones more consistently. It called for greater cooperation between maritime nations, better information exchange, and renewed political support for multilateral institutions. The group warned that without these measures, the fragmentation of shipping supply chains could lead to broader economic instability, stating: “When shipping supply chains fragment, the global economy fragments with it.”
The CSG’s recommendations include strengthening port state control mechanisms to ensure compliance with IMO standards, particularly for vessels operating in the shadow fleet. It also urged member states to share intelligence on unregulated shipping activities and to harmonise sanctions enforcement to prevent loopholes. For industry stakeholders, the message was clear: the era of taking free navigation for granted is over, and proactive measures are needed to safeguard the integrity of global supply chains.
The CSG’s warning has significant implications for shipping companies, insurers, and cargo owners. The proliferation of the shadow fleet and the weaponisation of maritime chokepoints introduce new risks that must be factored into commercial planning. Companies may need to invest in enhanced due diligence to avoid inadvertently engaging with unregulated vessels, which could expose them to legal and reputational risks.
For insurers, the rise of the shadow fleet complicates risk assessment. Vessels operating outside conventional frameworks often lack proper certification, increasing the likelihood of accidents and environmental incidents. The CSG’s call for better information exchange could help insurers identify high-risk operators and adjust premiums accordingly. Meanwhile, cargo owners may face higher costs as shipping companies pass on the expenses of rerouting vessels to avoid high-risk areas.
The CSG’s intervention also signals a shift in how governments view maritime transport. By framing shipping as critical infrastructure, the group is urging policymakers to prioritise the sector in national security strategies. This could lead to increased investment in port security, cyber defences, and naval patrols in key waterways. For maritime nations like Singapore, which relies on free navigation for its economic survival, the stakes are particularly high.
The CSG’s statement sets the stage for a high-profile discussion at Splash Singapore, Asia’s leading shipping conference, later this month. The session, titled The Big Issues, will examine how companies should adapt to an era where geopolitics, regulation, technology, and commercial risk increasingly collide. Industry leaders, including Bjorn Hojgaard of Anglo-Eastern, Jeremy Sutton of Swire Shipping, and Shmuel Yoskovitz of X-X-Press Feeders, will debate strategies for maintaining fast decision-making and avoiding paralysis in an environment of poor visibility.
The agenda for the session reflects the CSG’s concerns. Topics will include how to structure shipping companies for resilience, allocate risk in an era of uncertainty, and retain talent amid growing operational challenges. The discussion will also explore the role of technology in enhancing transparency, such as blockchain for tracking vessel ownership and AI for predicting supply chain disruptions. For attendees, the event offers a rare opportunity to hear from policymakers and industry executives on the future of global maritime trade.
For those unable to attend Splash Singapore, the IMO and national maritime authorities provide regular updates on regulatory developments. The IMO’s website (www.imo.org) offers access to conventions, circulars, and reports on emerging threats to shipping.
The CSG’s intervention underscores the growing unease among maritime nations about the future of global trade. With more than 80% of the world’s goods transported by sea, the stakes could not be higher. We can no longer afford to do so.".
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