Railcar Shortage Looms as North America Scraps 35,000 Cars in 2025
North American railcar fleet to shrink by 10,000 units this year despite rising freight demand.
Industry data shows the continent is on track to scrap more than 35,000 railcars this year while building only 25,000, leaving a net deficit of 10,000 units, despite a 4.4% year-over-year increase in combined traffic for week 39.
“We see cars in storage coming out, but we really haven’t seen anybody change their fleet planning yet,” he told analysts. “I feel like if the pace of railcar loadings picks up, something’s got to give, and it’s going to be people are going to have to add to their fleet, and there’s not a lot of slack in the existing fleet to add to.".
Why Fleet Expansion Is Stalling Despite Rising Demand: Railcar
Association of American Railroads of American Railroads (AAR) reported that total North American carloads rose 1.6% in week 39 compared to the same period last year, while intermodal volume surged 6.9%. In the U.S. alone, carload volume was up 2.4%, intermodal jumped 7.4%, and overall traffic climbed 5.1%. Yet, despite this growth, railcar production remains below replacement levels, with the intermodal car segment hitting a six- to seven-year low in storage levels.
Global Ship Lease
Marchetto identified three key factors delaying fleet expansion: tariff uncertainty, rising steel costs, and a trade complaint filed by Union Tank Car, a Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary, against Mexican-built tank cars. “When you say it could be X, or it could be X plus ten, or it could be X plus twenty-five, and we don’t know, then people tend to wait,” he said, referring to the volatile tariff environment. “And waiting is unlikely to improve economics, as steel costs, interest rates, and lease rates are all trending higher heading into 2026.”
Trinity, which has manufactured railcars in Mexico since 1998, called the trade complaint “frustrating,” warning it could push car prices higher and intensify inflationary pressures on industrial shippers. The company is also grappling with Section 232 steel tariffs, which have increased the cost of hot-rolled coil and steel plate, critical inputs for tank car production. Meanwhile, Trinity is expanding its Longview, Texas, facility to boost domestic production capacity.
What This Means for Shippers and the 2026 Outlook
The tightening railcar market comes as shippers already face slower train speeds and longer dwell times, compounding capacity constraints. “If the pace of railcar loadings picks up, something’s got to give,” he warned, suggesting that shippers may soon have no choice but to invest in new builds, even at elevated prices.
Chemical traffic, a key sector for Trinity, remained flat at negative 0.1% in week 39, while coal posted a rare weekly gain, likely due to utilities rebuilding winter stockpiles amid rising natural gas prices.
As Marchetto put it: “There’s not a lot of slack in the existing fleet to add to.".
The coming months will be critical. If freight volumes continue rising and fleet expansion remains stalled, lease rates could spike, and shippers may face delays in securing the railcars needed to move goods. With tariff policies still in flux and the trade complaint unresolved, the industry’s ability to respond to demand will hinge on whether manufacturers can ramp up production, and whether shippers are willing to pay the price.
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