Hormuz Shutdown: Who Really Controls the World’s Oil Chokepoint?
Iran’s blockade slashed 95% of traffic through the 20-mile Strait, sending global oil markets into chaos.
The Strait of Hormuz, a 20-24-mile-wide waterway that funnels 20% of the world’s seaborne oil, has become the epicentre of a geopolitical storm after Iran effectively shut it down in February.
The strait, bordered by Iran to the north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates to the south, has long been a flashpoint. Within weeks of declaring the strait “closed”, Tehran had choked off exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar, while maintaining its own oil flows at around 2.0 million barrels per day (Mb/d). The disparity exposed the vulnerability of Gulf states without alternative export routes.
How the blockade reshaped Middle East oil flows: strait of hormuz
The impact of the closure has been uneven, with countries able to reroute exports faring better than those without alternatives. Saudi Arabia, which saw its exports drop from 7.35 Mb/d to 4.57 Mb/d between February and March, leaned on its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The UAE, similarly equipped with the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, managed a 40% decline, from 3.47 Mb/d to 2.08 Mb/d. In contrast, Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar, lacking bypass options, saw their exports plummet by 82%, 81%, and 80%, respectively.
Brent Crude
The U.S. response was swift. By April and May, Washington had imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports to halt Tehran’s oil exports, further tightening the noose. A brief respite came in June, when the two sides signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), establishing a 60-day-day ceasefire and a framework to reopen the strait. But the truce was short-lived. Renewed clashes in July led to its collapse, and on July 14, President Trump reinstated the naval blockade, which remains in place today.
The Hormuz Shuttle Service: A risky workaround
With the strait still contested, Saudi Arabia has turned to the so-called “Hormuz Shuttle Service”, a high-risk operation that involves tankers navigating the southern route along the Omani coastline. The workaround has allowed Riyadh to push seaborne crude exports close to pre-war levels, though refined product flows remain far below normal. The Houthis, meanwhile, have added another layer of complexity. By the end of July, the Yemen-based group had announced a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, forcing Yanbu exports to reroute via the Sumed pipeline and the Suez Canal.
Iran, frustrated by its inability to export oil despite its claims of “control” over the strait, has escalated attacks on shuttle tankers. Transits have dipped in recent days, but the trade remains lucrative for those willing to take the risk. Erik Broekhuizen, an analyst at Poten & Partners, notes that the situation is likely to “continue to ebb and flow until either the U.S. or Iran decides to restart negotiations.” However, with U.S.
As the primary outlet for Persian Gulf oil, its closure has exposed the fragility of global energy supply chains. For now, the world remains at the mercy of a 20-24-mile-wide chokepoint, where geopolitical tensions dictate the flow of oil, and the stability of the global economy.
La situación en el estrecho de Ormuz sigue sin resolverse, con tensiones que mantienen en vilo a los mercados energéticos. Los próximos pasos dependerán de las conversaciones entre Estados Unidos e Irán, previstas para septiembre, según declaraciones oficiales de ambas partes. Mientras tanto, la industria naviera ajustará sus rutas, a la espera de que se defina un plazo concreto para la reapertura del tránsito seguro en la zona.
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