US LTL Market Hits 15% Growth—Is the Freight Slump Over?
Estes Express Lines reports back-to-back record weeks as next-day shipments surge 13% in Q3.
The US less-than-truckload (LTL) freight market is showing signs of life, with Estes Express Lines reporting a 15% year-over-year tonnage increase last week, the carrier’s second consecutive record.
Webb Estes, appearing on FreightWaves Today, attributed the growth to a combination of calendar effects and genuine demand. “Wednesday fell at the end of the month this year, unlike last year’s Tuesday cutoff, which helped comparisons as shippers rushed to hit quarterly targets,” he explained. However, even accounting for the shift, Estes described the week as “genuinely strong,” aligning with his earlier predictions on the programme.
Where the Volume Is Coming From, and Why It Matters: Freight
Manufacturing, particularly in the truck and automotive sectors, alongside groceries and retail, is fueling the bulk of the increase. Q3 next-day shipments jumped 13% year-over-year, compared to just 2.5% growth for the rest of its network.
Estes linked the regional outperformance to a broader shift in the freight landscape.
“I really believe it comes down to our people,” he said. “Our driver turnover for people that are within at least one year is at 7.5% right now… our dock worker turnover after one year is the lowest I’ve ever seen it at 11.5%.”
“I really believe it comes down to our people. Our driver turnover for people that are within at least one year is at 7.5% right now… our dock worker turnover after one year is the lowest I’ve ever seen it at 11.5%.”
Webb Estes·Executive, Estes Express Lines
Mastio, an industry benchmarking firm, named Estes Express the best-value national LTL carrier for the fifth consecutive year, a milestone the company learned about the morning of Estes’s interview. The recognition, Estes argued, reflects a competitive edge built on workforce stability. “Low turnover means drivers and dock workers build lasting customer relationships,” he said. “That’s a structural advantage that’s difficult for competitors to replicate.”
A Recovery in Its ‘First Inning’, With Risks Ahead
Despite the positive signs, Estes struck a cautious tone about the market’s trajectory. “We’re still in the first inning,” he said, framing the current demand as driven more by supply normalisation than a full-blown boom. While the reshoring of US manufacturing could create a “freight multiplier effect” down the road, with domestic production generating at least three times the freight of equivalent imports, Estes flagged headwinds that could derail the momentum.
“Rising credit card debt and elevated diesel prices are risks to consumer staying power,” he warned. However, Estes expressed optimism about the long-term outlook, particularly if manufacturing continues to shift back to the US.
The carrier is also betting on technology to solidify its position. Estes announced plans to roll out a live-map tracking feature for shippers, building on existing tools that provide driver names, equipment details, and lane-level on-time performance at the quoting stage.
For an industry that’s spent years grappling with overcapacity, driver shortages, and volatile demand, the recent uptick offers a glimmer of hope. Whether it marks the start of a sustained recovery or a temporary blip remains to be seen, but for now, the numbers are moving in the right direction.
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