The presidency of Donald J. Trump is proving to be a challenge to the fundamental pillars of free trade and economic globalization. The imposition of tariffs on strategic goods—mainly of Chinese origin—has deeply shaken the foundations of global commerce. The American strategy is forcing a redesign of logistics and commercial activities, companies, shipping lines, and even ports.
The tariff policy has taken the form of successive waves of import duties, initially focused on the tech sector and later extended to consumer goods, energy products, raw materials, vehicles, textiles, industrial components, and more.
These tariffs affect one-third of all products consumed by the U.S. market. This is undoubtedly a handicap for American consumers, and we shall see what consequences this has in the medium term. Protectionism is not just an economic tool, but also an instrument of foreign policy with geostrategic aims. High tariffs are not applied solely to China, but also to its partners and to all countries that have become recipients of Chinese factories and major American tech companies. This includes Vietnam, Cambodia, India, Malaysia, and companies such as Apple, BMW, Tesla, etc. The figures clearly show who will suffer the most severe tariff penalties.
THE SHIPPING LINES’ RESPONSE
All this has made it urgently necessary to revise business strategies, especially among shipping and logistics companies. The sector is gripped by uncertainty. It is impossible to establish a medium-term business strategy. Shipping lines face new and increasingly complex challenges. Geopolitical tensions and conflicts, route changes, CO₂ emission costs, duties on vessels built in or originating from China—all these factors make it impossible to maintain a consistent line of business.
Trade tensions are continually fragmenting global supply chains. A company that does not maintain constant market surveillance and cannot respond with agility runs the risk of succumbing to current and future challenges. At present, tariff uncertainty has become a logistical and financial risk factor, even altering infrastructure investment decisions. Let us analyze the reasons.
IMPACTS ON MARITIME TRANSPORT AND PORT PLANNING
Maritime trade represents 90% of global goods exchange. Routes between Asia and North America saw a sharp spike in traffic ahead of tariff enforcement, followed by abrupt declines. This erratic behavior forced shipping lines to change port calls, cut services, or introduce lower-capacity vessels to maintain flexibility.
Transport contracts are being renegotiated with volatility clauses. New opportunities are emerging for alternative ports less exposed to tariff tensions. Moreover, port planning has incorporated geopolitical risk as a new parameter in evaluating investments and attracting traffic. Major ports, like shipping companies, have created permanent market observatories to respond to all these changes. It’s vital to be ready for demand volatility as tariff policies evolve. Global tariffs create complex challenges for carriers and shippers, affecting routes, costs, and profitability. Strategic planning is essential to remain competitive, manage risks, and adapt business dynamics.
As mentioned, trade flows will move toward less exposed zones. This will cause constant fluctuations in rates and freight costs. As the industry navigates this complex landscape, understanding the multifaceted impact of tariffs becomes crucial for companies. These changes are far from trivial. Changing routes, ports, frequencies, and even resizing vessels to match new cargo volumes will pose a major challenge—and increase costs.
Although tariffs can be avoided, shipping companies must still face all these changes, which will lead to unexpected expenses on their balance sheets. Longer voyages mean higher fuel and crew costs. Changing port facilities results in higher fees. If trending ports begin to concentrate cargo, congestion problems will arise. If global demand falls due to higher product costs from tariffs, cargo volumes and transport demand will also decline—leading to vessel overcapacity that will be hard to fill or sustain. Freight rates for smaller vessels will undoubtedly increase to adjust to an unstable market. Port call cancellations (Blank Sailings) will become frequent, as it will be impossible to guarantee the necessary cargo volumes.
In response, large fleets are already studying vessel repositioning on new routes, aiming to secure port calls at emerging facilities and align with changing trade flows. Route frequencies will obviously change to try to maintain operational efficiency and basic margins. Feeder deployment will be crucial, reserving large liners only for high-demand emerging routes. The constant changes in vessel deployment, schedules, logistics, and port calls will only lead to higher operational and fuel costs.
Several months ago, I discussed this in a previous strategic analysis on the applications of artificial intelligence in shipping companies. Now it makes even more sense. Given so many decisive and volatile factors, the most advanced shipping companies are integrating these elements into the algorithms of their AI-powered route and scheduling planning tools. It would be practically impossible to manually calculate all this data to determine the best operational and profitable routes.
COMPLEX DOCUMENTATION PROCESSES
The increased regulatory control that comes with tariffs leads to much more complex summary and customs declarations. Exemptions for shipments under $800 have also been eliminated. This change requires full customs declarations for every shipment. Any documentary error or omission causes significant delays and increased costs. Without a doubt, the new tariffs will lead—at least initially—to more frequent inspections, resulting in longer clearance times and, consequently, congestion at seaport and land terminals. In response, companies are rushing to invest in more advanced systems to speed up customs and tariff documentation compliance. Digitization will be more critical than ever.
THE EUROPEAN UNION’S REACTION
The European Union has chosen a dual response to U.S. tariffs: on one hand, by imposing reciprocal tariffs on American products, and on the other, by expanding its network of trade agreements and partners.
The EU has signed key agreements with Japan, Mercosur, Vietnam, and Canada, aiming to reduce dependency on the U.S. and diversify markets. In general, there is a shift in trade focus toward Asia. This reflects a strategic autonomy approach, strengthening internal supply chains in sensitive sectors such as microchips, pharmaceuticals, and critical raw materials.
In this context of global reconfiguration, European ports have an opportunity to position themselves as hubs for transshipment, consolidation, and distribution. In particular, Atlantic ports could capitalize on their intercontinental location if they improve land connectivity, intermodal services, and customs digitization. Investing in logistics zones, green corridors, and value-added centers (such as assembly or repair hubs) could attract traffic diverted from saturated or geopolitically exposed routes. Furthermore, the rise of nearshoring to North Africa or West Africa presents logistical synergies—if smart EU port policies are implemented.
THE 10% TARIFF CLUB
Which countries make up the “10% Club”?
Those with the closest ties to the U.S. government—commercial, strategic, political, economic, national security, anti-narcotics, etc.
The following are:
🇰🇭 Camboya: 49%
🇱🇦 Laos: 48%
🇲🇬 Madagascar: 47%
🇻🇳 Vietnam: 46%
🇲🇲 Myanmar: 44%
🇱🇰 Sri Lanka: 44%
🇮🇶 Irak: 39%
🇧🇩 Bangladesh: 37%
🇷🇸 Serbia: 37%
🇧🇼 Botsuana: 37%
🇹🇭 Tailandia: 36%
🇨🇳 China: 34%
🇮🇩 Indonesia: 32%
🇹🇼 Taiwán: 32%
🇨🇭 Suiza: 31%
🇱🇾 Libia: 31%
🇿🇦 Sudáfrica: 30%
🇵🇰 Pakistán: 29%
🇹🇳 Túnez: 28%
🇰🇿 Kazajistán: 27%
🇮🇳 India: 26%
🇰🇷 Corea del Sur: 25%
🇯🇵 Japón: 24%
🇲🇾 Malasia: 24%
🇨🇮 Costa de Marfil: 21%
🇪🇺 Unión Europea: 20%
🇯🇴 Jordania: 20%
🇳🇮 Nicaragua: 18%
🇮🇱 Israel: 17%
🇵🇭 Filipinas: 17%
🇳🇴 Noruega: 15%
🇻🇪 Venezuela: 15%
🇳🇬 Nigeria: 14%
10%
🇬🇧 Reino Unido: 10%
🇧🇷 Brasil: 10%
🇸🇬 Singapur: 10%
🇨🇱 Chile: 10%
🇦🇺 Australia: 10%
🇹🇷 Turquía: 10%
🇨🇴 Colombia: 10%
🇵🇪 Perú: 10%
🇨🇷 Costa Rica: 10%
🇩🇴 República Dominicana: 10%
🇦🇪 Emiratos Árabes Unidos: 10%
🇳🇿 Nueva Zelanda: 10%
🇦🇷 Argentina: 10%
🇪🇨 Ecuador: 10%
🇬🇹 Guatemala: 10%
🇭🇳 Honduras: 10%
🇪🇬 Egipto: 10%
🇸🇦 Arabia Saudí: 10%
🇸🇻 El Salvador: 10%
🇹🇹 Trinidad y Tobago: 10%
🇲🇦 Marruecos: 10%
🇺🇾 Uruguay: 10%
🇺🇦 Ucrania: 10%
🇶🇦 Qatar: 10%
🇭🇹 Haití: 10%
🇧🇴 Bolivia: 10%
🇵🇦 Panamá: 10%
🇵🇾 Paraguay: 10%
🇸🇳 Senegal: 10%
🇪🇹 Etiopia: 10%
🇯🇲 Jamaica: 10%
🇺🇬 Uganda: 10%
🇳🇵 Nepal: 10%
🇦🇫 Afganistán: 10%
🇧🇧 Barbados: 10%
🇽🇰 Kosovo: 10%
🇲🇳 Mongolia: 10%
🇸🇩 Sudán: 10%
🇦🇼 Aruba: 10%
🇾🇪 Yemen: 10%
🇮🇷 Irán: 10%
🇨🇻 Cabo Verde: 10%
🇹🇴 Tonga: 10%
🇦🇩 Andorra: 10%
🇦🇮 Anguilla: 10%
🇸🇸 Sudán del Sur: 10%
🇬🇮 Gibraltar: 10%
🇹🇻 Tuvalu: 10%
Many of these countries are located in Latin America, the Caribbean, and Africa. This is no coincidence. Trump aims to rescue the U.S. shipping industry from Chinese dominance and, likewise, to reclaim the Latin American market, which has been overtaken by the Asian giant. We are witnessing a shake-up of the commercial and strategic rules of the game as we knew them. Latin America is facing a new reality full of opportunities, but… for Africa—for Africa, the moment of truth has arrived.
A NEW ERA FOR GLOBAL STRATEGIC LOGISTICS
The Trump era symbolizes the end of innocence in global logistics.
Fear has gripped the markets. Recession looms—perhaps even stagflation—as the Federal Reserve hesitates to cut rates. Trump criticizes the inaction of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. His national reflation strategy depends on those interest rate cuts. The dollar is weakening, trading near 1.10 against the euro. U.S. external debt is falling, and a weaker dollar makes American production more competitive. Investors and factories are considering relocating to the U.S. Investors are selling dollars and buying bonds. From a “fine” economic perspective, one could argue that once the U.S. government achieves the expected rate cuts, the circle of its commercial strategy will be complete—ushering in a time for negotiations, but with the U.S. in a more comfortable position.
At this point, it is worth recalling the words of Swiss philosopher Jean-Jacques Rousseau:
“There are always four sides to a story: your side, their side, the truth, and what actually happened”.
From now on, companies must understand that efficiency cannot come at the expense of resilience. Geopolitics is now central to the economy, and ports, shipping lines, and logistics platforms must adapt to increasingly unstable scenarios.
For Europe, the answer lies in building reliable, diversified, and sustainable networks. To remain competitive, it must integrate geostrategic dimensions into its industrial, energy, and trade policies—leveraging its port infrastructure as critical nodes.
The strategic adaptability of shipowners, logistics operators, and port authorities will be decisive. Investing in resilience, technology, business intelligence, and operational efficiency is no longer optional—it is the only path to thrive in this new global logistics order.
If there were ever a time we couldn’t afford to be late to the future, it is now.
