The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Chinese goods and other producing economies have begun to make an impact on supply chains, affecting ports, maritime routes, logistics hubs, and geopolitical alliances. The number of vessel calls has decreased significantly, and for weeks, the trend has remained the same: uncertainty. It is virtually impossible to plan any kind of action, as shipping lines and cargo owners face shifting market conditions on a weekly basis.
We closed week 19 with a productive meeting between the U.S. and U.K. administrations, resulting in agreements that ease the initial tariffs imposed on the Downing Street government.
To the relief of financial markets, a U.S. delegation led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is meeting this weekend, May 10–11, in Geneva, Switzerland, to negotiate tariffs. On China’s side, the talks are led by Vice Premier He Lifeng, a close collaborator of President Xi Jinping. Also joining the Chinese delegation is Wang Xiaohong, Minister of Public Security—suggesting that topics such as fentanyl trafficking are also on the table.
These negotiations aim to de-escalate the current trade war. In recent statements, Donald Trump confirmed the possibility of reducing tariffs on Chinese goods by up to 80%, in exchange for a commitment from China to purchase American products in return. This favorable environment has been quickly reflected in the markets, with strong gains on Wall Street—giving the Republican administration some breathing room in the face of growing domestic criticism.
“Friendly fire is always the worst,” Winston Churchill once said wisely, alongside his friend and namesake Franklin Roosevelt. This time, both allied governments—the U.S. and the U.K.—have been pioneers in reaching a trade agreement.
Other economies are adopting resilient strategies to navigate tariff-related challenges. Reshoring (bringing manufacturing back home), nearshoring (moving production to nearby countries), and friendshoring (relocating production to allied nations) are quickly becoming the new logistical order in response to high levels of trade uncertainty.
RESHORING
Some countries have turned to reshoring to bring their industries back home from Asia—a trend that, in fact, began in the post-pandemic period. Many nations realized that in times of crisis, relying solely on external production was not a sustainable strategy.
Exports from China have declined, while demand has increased from Taiwan and Vietnam, leading to significant variations in the number of port calls. In the Mediterranean, short-sea shipping services are on the rise, benefiting Spanish and Italian ports, which are receiving more goods from North Africa and Turkey.
This abrupt disruption of traditional cargo flows, caused by tariffs applied unevenly across different regions, is completely reshaping maritime routes. As expected, this situation is affecting port facilities, though not all are impacted in the same way—it depends on their geographic location and proximity to new logistics hubs.
In response, the current trend favors the use of smaller, more versatile vessels to avoid overcapacity and to allow for calls at various port facilities. Other companies, such as Samsung and LG, are considering relocating part of their production from Mexico to the United States to mitigate risks in their supply chains.
NEARSHORING
China is turning to nearshoring by redirecting its products and financial assets. It has strengthened trade with Southeast Asia and the European Union. In April alone, its exports grew by 8.1% year-on-year, despite a 21% drop in shipments to the U.S. At the same time, demand for maritime transport on the China–U.S. route has fallen by 30% to 50%, with massive cancellations of itineraries (blank sailings) and service diversions to other countries in the Far East. China is also working to reduce its dependency on the U.S. dollar, cutting its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by more than 27% while increasing its reserves of gold and agency bonds. This move aims to shield its economy from potential financial sanctions should geopolitical tensions escalate. Beijing’s sale of American debt directly undermines the Trump administration—a fact Washington is well aware of, and perhaps one of the motivations for reopening dialogue between the two powers this weekend in Switzerland.
FRIENDSHORING
The shift of production to countries subject to lower tariffs is driving a strong trend toward friendshoring. Companies are moving operations from the so-called “Asian factories” to third countries. Others, however, are choosing to wait, given that in such an uncertain climate, short-term planning is nearly impossible. Just two weeks ago, tariffs of 145% were imposed on China, and today negotiations in Geneva are underway to reduce them to 80%.
Still, the current situation has completely disrupted established shipping routes, schedules, and volumes. Even if a deal is reached between the two major powers, tariffs will not disappear—they may be reduced, but they won’t be eliminated. U.S. officials have made this clear in the hours leading up to the negotiations.
As noted in previous analyses, this environment is likely to benefit African and Latin American countries. Ports such as Tanger Med, Lomé, and Abidjan are capturing new flows. In Central America, facilities in Costa Rica, Guatemala, and El Salvador—the latter having a close relationship with the U.S. government—are seeing growing interest.
China continues to strongly back the Port of Chancay in Peru and is evaluating a rail connection between the two major oceans, linking Chancay with Brazil’s Port of Santos. This would bypass the need for Panama Canal transit. The so-called “Bi-Oceanic Railway Corridor,” promoted by Beijing, would foster development across a vast area of the Peruvian and Brazilian hinterland and potentially enhance trade with neighboring countries.
THE EUROPEAN REACTION
The protectionist shift by the United States has led the European Union to explore a strategic partnership with the CPTPP bloc (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership), which includes countries such as Japan, Mexico, Canada, Vietnam, Singapore, Peru, New Zealand, Malaysia, Chile, Brunei, and Australia. The goal is to establish a regulated and stable trade alliance. This potential coalition would strengthen shared supply chains and open new markets in a reliable manner.
Logistics is no longer governed solely by economic efficiency, but increasingly by geostrategy. Ports, shipping companies, and logistics platforms must recognize that global trade is fragmenting into distinct blocs. Choosing not to align with one will be difficult. Adapting to this new era will require resilience, strategic alliances, and operational flexibility in order to survive and maintain leadership positions—ensuring they do not arrive late to the future.
