Global maritime trade is going through one of its most uncertain periods in decades. Geopolitical events and trade decisions—particularly those driven by the United States—are reshaping global supply chains and directly affecting maritime traffic.
The Trump administration has declared a 90-day period during which most of the newly announced tariffs will not be applied, aiming to reach possible agreements during this pause with countries it maintains trade relations with.
HISTORIC DROP IN THE CONTAINER BUSINESS
The first containers from China subject to the new tariffs are expected to arrive in the U.S. during the week of May 5.
According to Hapag-Lloyd sources, 30% of shipments from China to the United States have been canceled, redirecting demand to alternative markets such as Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. While this shift benefits new Asian players, it also creates a major disruption for U.S. ports that rely heavily on Chinese cargo. These circumstances are reflected in pricing, with a 15% increase in container rates from Vietnam and a 27% decrease in those originating from China.
Air and maritime cargo operators are reporting sharp declines in freight traffic. At the Port of Los Angeles—America’s main entry point for Chinese goods—a nearly 30% drop is expected starting May 4.
Forecasts from the consultancy Drewry reinforce this outlook: a 1% contraction in global container trade volume is expected in 2025—a phenomenon with only two historical precedents, in 1979 and during the 2020 pandemic. China and North America, in particular, are projected to experience significant declines in port activity, by 4.6% and 5.5% respectively.
Some importers are holding goods in customs facilities where they can be temporarily stored, awaiting further developments regarding tariff payments, and, if necessary, rerouting the goods to nearby markets for processing.
The uncertainty generated by the trade war is stalling many investments in the port and shipping sectors. “Blank sailings” are on the rise, while companies are considering slowing down navigation and scrapping older vessels. This trend threatens to create congestion zones in ports less affected by the tariffs.
U.S. MARITIME RENAISSANCE
In April 2025, Donald Trump signed an executive order to revitalize the maritime power of the United States, with a clear focus on the rejuvenation of both civilian and military shipbuilding, the creation of maritime prosperity zones, sector-specific workforce training, combating Chinese dumping in shipbuilding, and the establishment of a naval construction office focused on the civilian sector. Each job in a shipyard generates five additional jobs in other industrial sectors—making shipbuilding a true engine of economic productivity and employment, a fact Trump clearly understands.
Having a domestic commercial fleet would safeguard U.S. foreign trade in times of crisis—an issue the country learned the hard way during the pandemic. The lack of control over maritime transport at that time hindered the export capabilities of American producers.
The U.S. government aims to regain maritime autonomy and generate internal wealth, from the most basic industrial sectors to exports. It would also reduce potential vulnerabilities in the face of foreign maritime blockades and strengthen the long-term military-industrial structure—leveraging civilian shipyards to boost local activity. This is a national strategy aimed at regaining the strength of a lost empire.
However, the liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry has voiced concerns about the technical infeasibility of complying with new regulations mandating that LNG be transported exclusively on U.S.-flagged vessels. The U.S. currently lacks the fleet and capacity to manage such operations. The Oil & Gas sector, a major supporter of Trump during his presidential campaign, will likely see these measures adjusted to fit market realities. Establishing a fleet of U.S.-flagged LNG carriers cannot be accomplished within five years.
TRUMP’S STRATEGY
Trump is not acting on personal impulse alone, but as part of a much deeper project with well-defined strategic pillars. The goal is to rebuild the American industrial base by attracting capital and production previously offshored by major national companies. Maritime supremacy is key to achieving this—avoiding dependence on foreign powers, preventing dumping, blockades, and congestion. The maritime renaissance is a cornerstone of this forced reindustrialization.
Trump seeks rapid change through a strategy of “economic shock,” rooted in the theories of Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman of the Chicago School. This approach briefly destabilizes the economic environment or creates a crisis, aiming to reduce political resistance to bold reforms and establish a new economic order.
Such a strategy would lead to a major restructuring of global alliances, aiming to isolate trade competitors. Maritime control is thus a key element for maintaining global strategic dominance. The “maritime renaissance” will be a critical tool to drive a new era of economic hegemony. Initially, it will come with economic costs and international tensions due to disruptions in supply chains. But this is a mid-to-long-term strategy, designed to align with the needs of U.S. production and markets.
LEADING SHIPPING COMPANIES: ADAPT OR DISAPPEAR
The maritime and port sectors stand at a crossroads: adapt or perish. The convergence of geopolitical tensions, economic protectionism, and structural changes in supply chains demands that shipping companies redefine their strategies with resilience at the core.
Challenging years lie ahead. Adapting to the new global reality will be imperative, not optional. Shipping companies must conduct deep and ongoing analyses to protect their financial stability and maintain operational fleets.
Management will depend heavily on the political and economic developments of current events. Companies will need to navigate a constantly shifting landscape. Traditional strategies are no longer enough. It will be essential to develop contingency plans and flexible strategies that can quickly adapt to uncertain scenarios, geopolitical tensions, or economic shifts.
Long-term, static forecasts are no longer viable. Constant environmental analysis—political, economic, and logistical—will be necessary to adjust operations, investments, and trade routes in real time. Maintaining financial balance will become a critical issue. In volatile conditions, companies must carefully manage debt, liquidity, and operational costs to ensure their financial structures can weather tough times.
A key challenge will be keeping operational fleets aligned with demand. This may involve decisions such as fleet renewal, selling or flexibly chartering ships, and investing in more energy-efficient vessels in compliance with new regulations. Day-to-day operations will face constant disruptions—route closures, new regulations, tariffs, conflicts—making it essential to have highly skilled management teams capable of responding swiftly and making sound decisions under uncertainty. Shipping companies must also invest in advanced information systems, data analytics technologies, and commercial and geopolitical intelligence services to anticipate disruptive events. For instance, the new AI departments established by MSC, Maersk, CMA-CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, ONE, and Evergreen.
Above all, leadership must be grounded in a cultural and organizational foundation that embraces continuous change, encourages operational innovation, rapid adaptation, and evidence-based decision-making.
Managing shipping companies in this new era must be proactive, dynamic, and resilience-driven. Strategic decisions will carry more risk, but they will be necessary to ensure medium-term survival and competitiveness—avoiding being late to the future.
