Recent events in the United States, China, Europe, Southeast Asia, and major shipping routes confirm that efficiency, security, strategic autonomy, and resilience are more important than ever for businesses.
The acceleration of US protectionist policies is driving greater fragmentation of trade. The United States continues to rely on a battery of tariffs and trade restrictions, aimed at reducing its dependence on the Chinese market and revitalizing its manufacturing sector. The immediate effect has been a 20% drop in Chinese exports to the US, which have been massively diverted to other markets in the Global South and emerging economies. This shift naturally implies a redesign of shipping routes, suppliers, and production centers. Meanwhile, the US is reinforcing the narrative of industrial repatriation, even as many companies warn of increased production costs.
Years ago, major economies readily shifted their production centers to China, which offered cheaper labor and factories. Now, Beijing’s economy is successfully shifting its production to third countries, primarily in Southeast Asia, to compensate for the decline in the US market.
The global chessboard is rebalancing at an unprecedented pace. In response to tariff policies, China has adopted an unprecedented strategic and logistical opening.
Between 2026 and 2030, Beijing plans to significantly increase its purchases of food, minerals, technology, and industrial inputs, sending a clear signal to the market: China will remain the biggest driver of global trade.
The country plans to expand its network of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements in Asia-Pacific, Africa, Latin America, and Europe, reinforcing its role as a key trading partner for dozens of emerging economies and opening new markets. This strategy has allowed it to absorb the reduction in US demand, surprisingly increasing its export volume.
The recent inauguration of the direct maritime route between Chancay and Shanghai is a perfect example of this strategy. The connection, which reduces transit times from 40 to 23 days, has already generated over 5 billion yuan in trade and has significantly boosted cargo flow between China and Peru. These types of corridors, linked to deep-water port megaprojects, reinforce China’s ambition to build its own logistics network, enabling it to mitigate geopolitical and tariff risks through stable partners and alliances, in the face of growing and persistent global geopolitical challenges. Beijing is rapidly redrawing the global trade map.
Europe’s industrial strategy
Amid tensions between Washington and Beijing, the European Union’s new strategy aims to strengthen its economic autonomy and industrial capacity. Brussels has recognized the need for greater self-sufficiency and reduced external dependence, requiring that 70% of the content of critical goods such as electric vehicles, solar panels, and batteries be manufactured within Europe.
The measure, if approved, would completely transform European supply chains. But it would also pose an economic challenge: producing these goods in Europe is significantly more expensive than doing so in Asia, at a time when many European industries are struggling to maintain their profit margins.
Meanwhile, the EU has softened its new supply chain due diligence law following intense diplomatic pressure from countries such as the United States and Qatar. The result is a more limited regulatory framework, reducing the number of companies required to comply and eliminating the requirement for mandatory climate plans.
Europe is thus navigating a delicate balance between protecting its industry, maintaining relations with China, and avoiding clashes with the United States. An increasingly complex task.
Southeast Asia, a new commercial epicenter
Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines have become priority recipients of production diverted from China. But this situation is ambivalent.
They represent an increase in trade volume and investment in their respective states. They generate more maritime traffic, new regional value chains, and the establishment of factories seeking to circumvent US tariffs. But they also entail risks. Local industry faces a loss of competitiveness due to the strength and prices of Chinese production. Sensitive sectors such as textiles and automotive have been particularly affected. In some of these countries with younger populations, social tensions have arisen due to the loss of opportunities to foreign interests.
Overall, Southeast Asia is emerging stronger than ever amid global uncertainty, poised to become the new epicenter of the global trade order. According to the UNCTAD report, the region is projected to consolidate its position by 2025 with export growth of 9% and intraregional trade growth of 10%.
The current picture reflects an increase in Chinese exports with a projected trade surplus of $1 trillion by 2025. This situation doesn’t seem to reflect the tariff reality, at least for Beijing, considering that its bilateral trade with the US has fallen by a staggering 29% by 2025. These figures demonstrate the success of the trade policy implemented by the Asian giant, although a significant slowdown is still being observed globally, according to the latest UNCTAD data.
The risks to ships do not cease
Recent attacks on oil tankers and ports in the Black Sea have tripled marine insurance prices. What began as a regional conflict now has a global impact. The affected routes are critical for the transport of grain, oil, and other essential products. The Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Red Sea remain in a state of uncertainty. While some shipping companies are taking the first cautious steps toward resuming operations, others aren’t even considering it.
Emerging opportunities amid a battered economy.
In the current climate of chronic uncertainty, nearshoring and friendshoring have become more relevant than ever. The rise of major ports in the Global South continues, offering an alternative to the traditional shipping routes. In Latin America, Chancay and Callao continue to grow, while Santos in Brazil is undergoing a significant bidding process for its container terminals, involving substantial investments and railway development. At the Kenyan port of Lamu, as well as in Mexico and India, nearshoring is increasing activity for operators seeking to reduce their exposure to tariff risks from China.
The most resilient, flexible, digitized, safe, sustainable, and energy-efficient facilities will attract demand. The US is reshaping globalization through protectionism. China leverages its influence through trade, logistics, and strategic investment. Europe seeks autonomy in an increasingly adverse environment. Asia is becoming the main stage for global industrial restructuring. And the oceans, once a symbol of stability, are once again a space of risk. In this new order, resilience is no longer an option: it is a structural requirement for competing.
UNCTAD Report
The recent UNCTAD report, “Trade and Development 2025: On the Brink,” warns that the global economy is increasingly fragile due to tightening financial conditions and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. According to the report, global growth will slow to 2.6 percent in 2025, down from 2.9 percent in 2024, as a result of simultaneous pressures on international trade and investment.
The report underscores that global trade is increasingly dependent on financial channels: nearly 90% of global trade requires financing, meaning that changes in interest rates, dollar liquidity, or investor confidence can have immediate effects on trade flows. UNCTAD highlights that trade is not just a physical exchange of goods, but also a network of credit, payment systems, foreign exchange markets, and capital flows, which makes it vulnerable to financial volatility.
Although global trade grew by around 4% at the beginning of 2025, driven in part by increased imports and tariff reductions, underlying growth remains between 2.5% and 3%, with future growth expected to moderate. Meanwhile, services, the digital economy, and South-South trade are gaining importance in the global trade structure.
Developing economies, despite leading global growth with a projected 4.3%, are the most exposed to financial and climate risks. These economies face higher financing costs, limited financial markets, and a heavy reliance on external debt, exacerbated by climate change-related risk premiums.
The report concludes that only through coordinated reforms that integrate trade, finance, debt and climate action will it be possible to restore stability and support long-term sustainable development.
